Swiss Re · APS · IPMA · OECD
Portugal seismic exposure and the insurance gap
National exposure
Most seismically exposed country in Europe
#1
Portugal ranks ahead of Italy in European seismic exposure (Swiss Re Sigma study, 2023). Risk concentrates along the southwestern coast, the Lower Tejo Valley, the Algarve, and the Azores.
Source: Swiss Re Sigma 2023
1755-scale event would cost ~20% of GDP
~20%
APS estimate of national GDP loss in a severe seismic event comparable to the 1755 Lisbon earthquake (M8.5–9.0).
Source: APS
Over 1,000 earthquakes per year
1,000+
IPMA records over a thousand seismic events a year in Portugal. Most go unfelt; the August 2024 M5.3 was the strongest mainland event since 2009 (M5.6).
Source: IPMA
Insurance gap
Only one in five homes carries seismic cover
19%
Of approximately 3.8 million Portuguese homes with multi-risk policies, around 19% include seismic phenomena cover. The figure has barely moved since the 2024 earthquake.
Source: APS, 2025
Article 1429 only mandates fire insurance
Fire only
Civil Code Article 1429 (1966) requires only fire insurance for condominiums. APEGAC and the OECD have called for mandatory seismic cover; the government is designing a "Fundo Sísmico".
Source: Código Civil · APEGAC · OECD Economic Survey Portugal 2026
APS seismic risk zones (insurance pricing)
A
Highest
Faro · Santarém · Lisboa
B
High
Setúbal · Évora
C
Moderate
Coimbra · Centro
D
Low
Porto · Aveiro
E
Lowest
Bragança · Vila Real
Sources: Swiss Re Sigma 2023 · APS (Associação Portuguesa de Seguradores) · IPMA · Código Civil Art. 1429 · OECD Economic Survey Portugal 2026 · APEGAC